Aug 09, 2018  Re: Double or nothing strategy For the profit confidence interval, I used the normal distribution which served for both the SNG and DON. For the ROR I believe I used the formula in Don Blankenship's Blackjack Attack book which he called the short term risk of ruin formula. Double or Nothing Video Poker Strategy. You’ll sometimes encounter video poker games that have a “double or nothing” feature. The way this usually works is that you play a bonus game in which the “dealer” (which is just the video poker machine itself) shows a card. Double or Nothing Strategy Overview In poker tournaments you gain equity by either gaining chips or by other players knocking each other out. Most fish don’t consider the latter and still try to accumulate chips without taking into account ICM.

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Welcome to our Double or Nothing tournament strategy guide. As the name suggests, a double or nothing sit and go is a tournament in which half the players double up their buy in and half the players get nothing. Despite PokerStars axing this format of SNG, they still remain a popular type of poker tournament on many sites including Party Poker, Red Kings and William Hill.

Double or Nothing – Flat payout structure

In most online poker tournaments the prize awarded to each player increases based on their finishing position. In double or nothing SNGs though each player that finishes in the money receives the same prize, regardless of how many chips they finish the tournament with. In this way they are similar to satellites to larger tournaments and as such, also require some changes to normal SNG strategy. Survival is key, not chip accumulation.

Double or Nothing Strategy Overview

In poker tournaments you gain equity by either gaining chips or by other players knocking each other out. Most fish don’t consider the latter and still try to accumulate chips without taking into account ICM. In double or nothings (DONs) the flat payout structure means you need to have a large advantage in a hand to justify playing a large pot.

Double or Nothing Strategy – Early stages

The above remains true in the early stages of the tournament. To illustrate why this is the case let’s take a look at an example.

You are playing a $20, 10 man double or nothing SNG. Each player begins the tournament with 1500 chips and $20 in equity. Now suppose you get all in versus one opponent and double up to 3000 chips. Has your equity doubled? Not even close. Your equity only jumps by 56% up to $31.22.

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This means that you should avoid playing big pots unless your hand has a big equity advantage over your opponents range. In the above example where everyone has equal chips and you are all in against a player you need to have at least a 64% advantage just to break even in tournament equity terms. As you need to win nearly 2 out of every 3 all-ins you should clearly avoid any coin flips or close spots.

Double or Nothing Strategy – Middle stages

As the blinds increase, losing any pot starts to become very costly. This means you shouldn’t be calling raises unless you think you are well ahead of your opponents range. The incentive to steal blinds also increases though as each steal starts to add a significant amount to your stack. Against tight opponents you should start to try more blind steals to maintain or increase your stack size.

Double or Nothing Strategy – Late stages and bubble

In the late stages your strategy should be based solely on survival. Your decisions will largely be affected by the remaining chip stacks and the position and size of the blinds. To call an all-in your standards should be even higher than our example from the early stages where you needed to be a 64% favourite to break even.

To see why let’s take a look at another example where you are in the same $20, 10 handed DON with 6 players remaining and by some miracle everyone has even stacks of 2500. Here everyone has $33.33 equity in the tournament. Suppose you now get the chance to call an all-in. The prize is $40 so winning the all-in and doubling up to 5000 chips will increase your equity by just $6.67, but if you should lose the all-in you will lose $33.33 in equity. This means that you are risking $33.33 to win just $6.67 therefore you need to have an 83.3% advantage over your opponents range to justify calling the all-in.

When facing a raise, especially an all-in, your default should be to fold. There are exceptions of course. You may be sitting there with aces against an opponent who is shoving any two cards, in which case your hand has the necessary equity advantage. If you have a very small or very large stack your decision may be also swayed towards a call due to the different risk to reward ratio.

Double or Nothing SNG Strategy Summary

While DONs aren’t the most exciting form of poker available they can still be very profitable, and are certainly a low variance way to make a living. DON SNGs lend themselves to multi-tabling so you should mark the regulars as you will see them often and marking them should enable you to avoid particularly tough games. Adjusting to the unusual equities and bubble factors better than your opponents will ultimately lead to success in these tournaments.

Double Or Nothing poker tournaments are a sort of Sit & Go that's made up of one table of either 8 or 10 players. It plays out like a regular poker tournament until 50% of the original players are left. At that point the tournament ends, play stops and the remaining players get to double their buy-ins! It's a bit like “Survivor”, except that half the players get to survive “Tribal Council”!

The prize money awarded to the top 4 or 5 players (top 50%) is literally double the buy-in amount for the tournament, and that's how the tournament gets its name. In Double or Nothing SNGs, you either double-up by finishing in the top half of players, or you walk away with nothing.

Don't get too down in the mouth because there's always another tournament seating in the lobby with your name on it!

Why Play Double or Nothing Tournaments at 888poker?

PROS:

• 50% of players cash, meaning you have a much better chance of winning than in regular SNGs or MTTs.
• They don’t take very long to finish (usually around 30 minutes).
• Important decisions are simpler and more run-of-the-mill for this tournament type. So if multi-tabling is up your street, jump straight in!
• Making money playing these events is very possible; you only need to win around 55% of these tournaments to come out a winner.

CONS:

• Your overall wins will be slow and small, as the best result can have is only to double your buy-in. In MTTs, you can win over 100 times your buy-in!
• Variance may be a bit higher than usual, because of the increase in all-in action that happens on the bubble. Think MTT bubble or normal SNG bubble and then double it, and double it again!

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Is this Tournament Type for You?

Double Or Nothing tournaments are for poker players who have patience. Because 50% of the players get paid, it's not necessary to take as many risks or chances. A big part of playing this type of tournament is waiting – waiting for the other opponents to knock each other out so that you can cash.

Tighter players have a bigger edge than looser players. For example, on the bubble, it might just be correct to fold JJ or even QQ pre-flop, instead of going all in! So if “loosey-goosey” is your middle name, this might not be the one for you!

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Timing is everything in Double or Nothing SNGs, as is knowing when to “hold’em and when to fold’em”!

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Double Or Nothing Tournament Strategy Tips:

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• Let Others Get The KO’s: You don’t have to be the one to bust other players in order to win. This is one tournament type where it’s not worth risking your own tournament life to end another player’s.
• Become a Short Stack Master: Knowing when to get all your chips in pre-flop is key. Pick out the opponents who are playing overly-tight and then shove!
• Tightness Is Key: Playing tighter is important, as you only need to finish in the top half of the player pool to cash.
• Aim To Survive To The End: It’s not necessary for you to get all of the chips in play in order to win. Surviving to the end is a win; not having the biggest stack.
• Steal Blinds To Chip Up: If you do get short on chips, steal blinds from players who are desperate to survive and more likely to fold.